By David T. Moore
Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
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Extra resources for Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Second Edition)
If this really is a Soviet military buildup, what kinds of weapons are being deployed: offensive weapons or defensive weapons? Questions · Why is an expensive missile system like the SA–2 being installed in Cuba? · What is the SA–2 really protecting? · Does a crisis exist? · If defensive weapons are being deployed, what evidence Evidentiary should be observed? · If offensive weapons are being deployed, what evidence Considerations should be observed? · What is not being seen? Inferences · What is inferred from the observed and collected evidence?
In short, the United States was doing everything except conventional warfare to destroy Castro and his regime. Castro’s point of view was that the United States was a real enemy. He could reasonably assume that in light of its other activities and having attempted an invasion once, the United States would repeat its actions and this time might succeed (an implication). Another possible outcome that probably was considered was that war, conventional or nuclear, was likely. Castro must have possessed evidence of the military capabilities of the United States and probably inferred that 93 Raymond L.
The Soviets took advantage of the American beliefs and faulty reasoning. Capitalizing on the idea that it is easier to lead a target astray than to try to change his mind, they successfully placed the 53 nuclear missiles in Cuba. Heuer observes that [deceptions] that follow this principle seldom fail, for the odds are then strongly in favor of the deceiver. The human capacity to rationalize contradictory evidence is easily sufficient to outweigh the pernicious effects of security leaks and uncontrolled channels of information that planners of 54 deception…might compromise their efforts.