China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and by Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University

By Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University (auth.)

This publication is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language economic system. it truly is released two times a yr and provides ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a study undertaking on the middle for Macroeconomic study (CMR) at Xiamen collage. in keeping with the CQMM version, the examine staff forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP progress, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. even as it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic regulations in China. as well as supporting readers comprehend China’s fiscal development and coverage advisor, this ebook has 3 major objectives: to aid readers comprehend China’s financial functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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5. In 2016, a depreciation expectation and the pressure of capital outflow will continue, caused by the economic slowdown. China’s foreign exchange reserves will continue to shrink to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. 12 trillion. 1 Background Analysis of Policy Simulations Since the People’s Bank of China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand in July 2005, not only the CNY (RMB) to USD exchange rate but also the nominal (real) effective exchange rates started a long process of appreciation.

The period covered by the 12th Five-year Plan came to a close in 2015, and the 13th plan started in 2016. Having summarized the experience of 2015 and expecting a beautiful 2016, our team proposes that the following issues deserve to be highlighted by the macroeconomic authorities. First, under the huge downward pressure of the economy, the structural adjustment process began to slow. In terms of industrial structure, China’s aggregate demand tended to rely on domestic demand rather than foreign demand.

The falling prices of staple commodities such as food and oil was the main reason for this drop; the increasing demand for services, clothing, traffic, communication, entertainment, education, and culture, together with a lag in market-oriented reform, promoted the sustained CPI uptrend. In terms of PPI, excess production capacity in part of the domestic upstream manufacturing industry and the 2014 slump in global oil prices were the main causes for the drop. The structural deflation since 2012 was caused by the large scale of capacity motivation (including real estate expansion) during the global financial crisis.

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