Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics: Methods and by Mark Schafer, Stephen G. Walker

By Mark Schafer, Stephen G. Walker

This e-book examines how ideals form leaders’ perceptions of truth and bring about cognitive and stimulated biases that distort, block, and recast incoming details from the surroundings. utilizing content material research and formal modeling equipment linked to quantitative operational code research, individuals study how ideals have an effect on guidelines on the topic of overseas protection and foreign political economic system.

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By weighting each verb when the subject is talking about 36 CONTENT ANALYSIS AND FORMAL MODELS self and then dividing by the total number of self utterances, we end up with the average level of cooperative or conflictual intensity the subject demonstrates in his rhetoric. The intensity of tactics index ranges from Ϫ1 to ϩ1, with lower scores indicating self’s belief about the utility of hostile tactics, and higher scores indicating a belief in the utility of cooperative tactics. 11 Risk Orientation (I-3): Averse to Acceptant Here we are interested in how risk aversive or risk acceptant the subject is.

Some of these event data systems developed scales to code verbs, which measure intensities of conflict, cooperation, and participation in the OPERATIONAL CODE ANALYSIS AT A DISTANCE 31 international system (Azar and Ben-Dak 1975; Callahan, Brady, and Hermann 1982; Goldstein 1992; Leng 1993). Two simple sentences illustrate the logic of this approach: (i) State X attacks State Z; and (ii) State W praises State Y. The two root verbs, attack and praise, give very different messages about state action.

By extension these changes in beliefs become causal mechanisms that may explain changes in the Bush administration’s foreign policy following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In part IV, we present applications of operational code analysis to research puzzles in the domain of security studies. A dyadic analysis of Soviet–American relations in chapter 6 illustrates the application of subjective games analysis to the dynamics between Gorbachev and Reagan that ended the cold war and assesses the experiential learning effects of external stimuli on a leader’s belief system and choice propensities.

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