A simulation approach to the study of human fertility by Gigi Santow (auth.)

By Gigi Santow (auth.)

This e-book is an amended and slightly shorter model of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian nationwide college in 1976, and as a result edited on the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The paintings falls clearly into components. the 1st is worried with the development and validation of a version, and the second one with its software as an experimental device. within the first half, comprising Chapters One to 4, an exam of old and modern types of inhabitants progress resulted in the choice to review alterations in fertility via a organic micro simulation version. the explanations assisting the alternative of any such version have been mentioned, and a seek of the literature produced the knowledge for use as version enter. the consequences of various the enter have been tested after which the version output used to be established opposed to Hutterite information. the most emphasis of the second one a part of the paintings, comprising Chapters 5 to Seven, used to be the checking out of the influence at the fertility of 1 society of diversifications within the length of the submit partum interval of non-susceptibility to perception, and within the point of toddler and baby mortality. extra simulations have been played to find the impression on fertility of using birth control to achieve various kinfolk sizes, either with and with out the extra influence of toddler and baby mortality.

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Additional info for A simulation approach to the study of human fertility

Sample text

It can happen that the use of poor or inappropriate data makes the output of the model unduly sensitive to the input: THE CHOICE OF SUITABLE INPUT DATA 29 Classical examples of this situation can arise in the biological and environmental sciences, where a combination of little experimental data and immense system complexity is frequently accompanied by overly simplistic modelling techniques. 10 Before using a model in an experimental capacity one likes, first of all, to compare its preliminary results with real data.

2. Computer simulation of first woman of the preliminary model IS CON 'ON I' AGE II. , 211 ..... , 1 I. 0U 36. uU ~~:U ..... 69 .. 1 STILI!.! I 1 I 1 I I I , s ", 1 I I 10 0 0 ASORT REST STILI. ZI " I a. 69 32 2' ·S'+ ",7 1. > 01i5 'ti,J°o2 .. 2. 3 21) 031 IS 22. '16 IS Sf; ... , 17. See Eaton (1952) for an account of the Hutterite's 'controlled acculturation'. 46 years. After her post partum infecund period was over there was a gap of one month before she conceived again, and her second live birth occurred at age 26 years.

Even apart from this time factor, one would never be free of doubts about the validity of one's findings, as one can say that 'equal emphasis' will be placed on family planning in the two villages, but this may be difficult to realise. And Mamdani (1972), in his analysis of the Khanna study, suggested that one cannot ascribe a simple causal relation between the presence of a birth control programme and a drop in birth rates. Ifthis be the case, how much more difficult would it be to arrive at any firm conclusions at the end of such an experiment as suggested by May and Heer !

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